free range statistics

I write about applications of data and analytical techniques like statistical modelling and simulation to real-world situations. I show how to access and use data, and provide examples of analytical products and the code that produced them.

Recent posts

Polls v results

19 May 2019

The polls did worse than usual in predicting the Australian federal election, but the pundits were far worse than the polls.

House effects, herding, and the last few days before the election

15 May 2019

A few small explorations of idiosyncracies with polls, a couple of days before the Australian federal election.

Familiarisation with the Australian Election Study

22 April 2019

I familiarise myself with the 2016 Australian Election Study, a wonderful source of individual level data on attitudes and behaviour relating to voting.

Animating the US Treasury yield curve rates

20 April 2019

I ponder the limitations of animation, and how much work is needed to turn a fun animation into a great story.

Using svglite with web fonts

07 April 2019

svglite is a great way for producing good graphics for the web but there's a small hack needed if you want to use web fonts with it.

Website with Australian federal election forecasts

31 March 2019

I've put up a page with my current Australian federal election forecasts for the House of Representatives, which I'll keep up to date until the election comes.

Better predictions for AFL from adjusted Elo ratings

30 March 2019

I improve my AFL predictions by adjusting Elo ratings for home team advantage (varying by home team) and with a more data-driven approach to parameters for the actual ratings.

AFL teams Elo ratings and footy-tipping

23 March 2019

I use Elo ratings from 12 months or from 120 years of AFL results to predict the results in the next round. Predictions based on just the past 12 months do better than those using the full history.

Exploring swings in Australian federal elections

11 March 2019

I explore the data on two-party-preferred voting swings in Australian federal elections and tentatively introduce the ozfedelect R package.

Bayesian state space modelling of the Australian 2019 election

02 March 2019

I tidy up Australian polling data back to 2007 and produce a statistical model of two-party-preferred vote for the coming election.