free range statistics

I write about applications of data and analytical techniques like statistical modelling and simulation to real-world situations. I show how to access and use data, and provide examples of analytical products and the code that produced them.

Recent posts


Long term economic growth rates

28 June 2026

I draw some charts of GDP per capita growth from 1900 to 2023, for various countries, using data from the excellent Maddison Project in economic history at the Groningen Growth and Development Centre.


United Kingdom prime ministers

23 June 2026

UK has had a spurt of prime ministerial turnover in the past decade or so, but it's by no means unprecedented. I download data from Wikipedia and try several ways to visualise that turnover.


Seasonal adjustment

14 June 2026

Seasonal adjustment is easy but getting hold of data can be hard. In this case I wrangle Samoa's monthly visitor arrivals data from 2017 to present and then use the seas and fable R packages to seasonally adjust it and ask if there is an impact from Iran war fuel crisis (there isn't evidence of one yet).


Durations of wars

13 May 2026

Modern wars on average last longer than a year, but the distribution is very right-skewed. Conditional on a war lasting 74 days and with no information available other than past durations, the median total duration is 261 days, and an 80% prediction interval would be (95, 1,752) days.


Pacific island energy supply

30 March 2026

Pacific island countries are heavily dependent on imported diesel, gas and kerosene for electricity generation and for cooking.


Pacific island demograpy, the narrative

22 March 2026

Pacific island populations are shaped by people movements, more than is the case for most countries in the world. Ease of migration—because of history, culture or international agreements—has a critical impact on population size, growth and shape; and the fundamentals of the economy.


Pacific island remittances

08 March 2026

Pacific island countries have some of the highest dependencies in the world on remittance payments from overseas.


Pacific island population pyramids (again)

01 March 2026

Population pyramids for Pacific countries, one or two at a time. I use these to highlight contrasts between two coral atoll nations, one of which has free movement to a large, rich country, and one of which doesn't.


Pacific diaspora

18 February 2026

Some Pacific countries have dramatically more of "their" people living overseas than in the origin country. And some don't.


The world's biggest 'Pacific' cities

16 February 2026

My best hasty effort at presenting the cities around the world with the most Pacific Islanders resident.