Forecasting New Zealand elections with R and Stan

Peter Ellis

16 August 2017

Today’s content

  • Election forecasts overview
  • Data acquisition and management via its own R package
  • Statistical modelling
  • Dissemination with Shiny, Jekyll and Markdown

To help pitch, hands up if you’ve…

(these aren’t necessarily sequential)

  • written one or more lines of R code
  • made a plot with ggplot and been comfortable with what aes(...) means
  • hated or loved %>% and have an opinion on mutate
  • built your own R package
  • written a program to fit a statistical model with Stan
  • written an article that went viral and destroyed a statistician’s career after a talk to an R users’ group
  • stood for Parliament

Election forecasts overview

Current forecasts