Modelled Territorial Authority Gross Domestic Product for New Zealand
Peter Ellis
June 2016
Today’s content
- Modelling TA GDP
- Accessing the data
- Example analysis
The Challenge
- Consistent with National and Regional Tier 1 GDP
- Detailed data available for re-use
- Source code and method open for critique and improvement
- Easy interactive access
The data
- Business Demography Statistics
- Linked Employer - Employee Database
- Regional GDP
- National GDP
The method (bottom up)
- reconcile the various earnings measures
- scale up employee numbers to earnings
- scale up earnings to GDP
The method (alternative, top down version)
- reconcile the two GDP measures
- allocate any ambiguity on basis of earnings
- allocate any remaining ambiguity on basis of employees
Commuter correction
- earnings only published by place of residence
- use the Census 2013 to reallocate earnings on basis of commuting
- known area for future improvement
Assumptions
- Earnings a good indicator of value added
- Employee numbers a good indicator of earnings
- No interaction between TA and earnings:GDP ratio for specified industry
- No interation between Region/TA and inter-industry relative earnings:GDP ratios of industries
- Commuter patterns unchanging and not industry-specific
- Price movements not industry-specific
- Price movements not region-specific